Alison's Window

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Trump Negotiations with Kim Jong Un

Trump walked away from the negotiations and left Hanoi ahead of schedule for the United States. Good move. It appears Kim was asking for sanctions to be lifted before he did anything about denuclearization. Same ploy as he father and grandfather, it appears. Trump would have been left with no leverage except to reapply sanctions. Had he gone that route, he would have appeared to cave to Kim's demands, and it would have taken some time to reinstitute the sanctions.

Now North Korea is still subject to economic sanctions and Kim has failed at his maneuver. Where to go from here? If Kim comes back with a counter-offer, Trump will have something to work with. If Kim does not, then it will be a stalemate with NOKO still under sanctions. If these sanctions do indeed cause economic pain, Kim will presumably have an incentive to reopen the talks. And if he does dream of getting credit for establishing a thriving NOKO economy (who knows what motivates him), he will be more motivated than he would have been if sanctions had been lifted.

All in all, probably the best move Trump could have made under the circumstances, and given the history of the Kims.